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The geopolitical scene in the US has been uncertain and volatile. The January jobs report exceeded expectations, though employment gains were largely concentrated in the healthcare sector. Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, has been nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, though this remains to be confirmed by the Senate. In the past week, the Supreme Court has ruled against President Trump’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) tariffs. In return, the Trump administration acted quickly to impose 10% global tariffs, and immediately raised to 15% that will remain effective for 150 days under a separate trade law. These developments have contributed to a weakening US dollar, which is further exacerbated by rising US-Iran military tensions. Gold extended its rally and reached new highs, while silver surrendered most of its gains. Investors remain cautious amid sharp swings in these traditional safe haven assets.
In Asia, market performance has been mixed. Indonesia experienced its largest stock crash since 1998, whereas South Korea and Taiwan delivered strong returns. Markets have shown heightened sensitivity to the external macro environment, resulting in intermittent pullbacks. Most recently, Chinese stocks rose as IEEPA tariffs were removed as China is set to face lower duties on shipments to the US. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indexes also experienced recent declines, as is expected due to thin trading volumes during the Lunar New Year holiday season. Overall sentiment towards Asian equity markets amid the uncertain global political climate remains positive.
Against this backdrop, we continue to diversify across different markets and sectors while remaining selective to stock selection, particularly within the technology sector. We continue to maintain a disciplined, bottom-up approach in portfolio construction.
Related Market Outlooks
2026 January Market Outlook: A Month That Redirected Market Attention
The New Year began with subdued volatility, but the calm was subsequently shattered by geopolitical events, notably US’s desire to take over Greenland for its strategic Arctic Circle argument. Demand for gold and silver skyrocketed with prices hitting new fresh highs. However, these high precious metal prices can create a range of challenges for precious metal-dependent industries like solar panel makers and EV producers which use silver as part of their components in their production. This may further impact the profitability of the solar panel makers which are already facing an oversupply situation.
2025 December Market Outlook: Protecting Value as Risks Reprice.
The hawkish rate cut signaled the Fed’s caution, even as tariff-related inflation pressures appeared to be fading. November’s jobs report suggested a subdued consumer environment. Unemployment had risen to its highest level since 2021, and retail sales remained unchanged despite Black Friday sales. Though the Trump administration has softened its language on China, recent developments highlight the delicate truce in their trade war. The U.S. has restricted China’s access to technology, such as permitting limited Nvidia chip exports, and formed an international partnership to counter China’s rare earth dominance.
2025 November Market Outlook: AI Bubble Alert
Mega-cap chip making company Nvidia Corp (“Nvidia”) became the first company to hit $5 trillion market capitalization, likely due to U.S. President Trump’s comments ahead of the trade talk with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of October. The talk resulted in a consensus on cooperation in expanding agricultural trade and pausing the rare-earths licensing regime for a year. Mid-November saw the conclusion of the record U.S. government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, and put an end to unpaid furlough and other government operations. Consequently, the October jobs report was cancelled due to insufficient data. The ambiguity around unemployment rates raised uncertainty about the state of the U.S. economy. Compounding concerns were exacerbated by growing anxieties about stretched valuations of an “AI bubble”, which led to a selloff towards the end of November.
2025 October Market Outlook: Between Tariffs and Growth — Searching for Stability
Towards the end of September, in an effort to protect American jobs, the Trump administration made surprised changes to immigration visa laws that target foreign talent, particularly those working in the U.S. technology sector. Amongst the heaviest users of this targeted immigration visa scheme include Amazon.com Services LLC, Meta Platforms Inc, Apple Inc and Google LLC. Later that month, the U.S. Immigration Service issued guidance that included exceptions, thus stabilising concerns. However, the labour market outlook remains uncertain with the shutdown of the U.S. government, which began on October 1st. Consequently, data reports such as the official U.S. monthly jobs report and the labour-intensive Consumer Price Index report would likely be delayed amidst the impending mass firing and unpaid furlough of certain segments of federal workers. In China, September data showed low domestic demand, a continued property downturn and the weakest economic growth in a year.
2025 September Market Outlook: Bullish Trends Meet a Cautious Reality
Economic data indicated a struggling Chinese economy with low factory output, weak retail sales, troubled property sector and high unemployment. This raises the likelihood of policy support in the fourth quarter; economists suggest monetary easing and fiscal expansion. Despite underwhelming economic data, the Chinese stock market stands at a stark contrast to the economy with the Shanghai Composite Index at a 10-year high. Additionally, the government announced their aim to triple chip output in 2026. The reluctance of household spending is evident in the size of savings worth more than 60% of the total value of the Chinese stock markets, leading analysts to believe that the rally is supported by long-term and institutional investors. Key drivers include the strategic deployment of state funds, inflows from global institutional investors—such as major U.S. financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, as well as large Singapore-based funds—and increased participation by domestic mutual funds and insurers.