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The hawkish rate cut signaled the Fed’s caution, even as tariff-related inflation pressures appeared to be fading. November’s jobs report suggested a subdued consumer environment. Unemployment had risen to its highest level since 2021, and retail sales remained unchanged despite Black Friday sales. Though the Trump administration has softened its language on China, recent developments highlight the delicate truce in their trade war. The U.S. has restricted China’s access to technology, such as permitting limited Nvidia chip exports, and formed an international partnership to counter China’s rare earth dominance.
Across Asia, the picture remains mixed. The weaker U.S. dollar alleviates pressure on currency weakness in countries like Indonesia, South Korea, India, and the Philippines. The Bank of Japan have responded to the Fed’s rate cut by raising interest rates by a quarter point in a widely expected decision. In China, the economy continues to be supported by sustained capital inflows and the boom in exports while pivoting away from dependence on U.S. consumers. This was in spite of the property sector slump, missed industrial production expectations, weak retail sales, and unchanging unemployment rates. Measures to drive consumption appear ineffective, and rising trade frictions with countries beyond the U.S are weighing on sentiment.
Investors are increasingly watchful for signs of an AI-driven bubble, including circular financing risks inflating valuations, where such dynamics could unwind abruptly. Against this backdrop, investors face a strategic dilemma - rein in AI exposure ahead of a potential bubble popping, or double down to capitalize on game-changing technology breakthroughs. In response, we are positioning portfolios defensively and broadening exposure to other sectors. This includes increasing allocations to commodities such as silver and gold, which can serve as stores of value, and consumer staples, that tends to offer more resilient demand. We continue to maintain a disciplined, bottom-up fundamental approach in portfolio construction.
Related Market Outlooks
2025 November Market Outlook: AI Bubble Alert
Mega-cap chip making company Nvidia Corp (“Nvidia”) became the first company to hit $5 trillion market capitalization, likely due to U.S. President Trump’s comments ahead of the trade talk with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of October. The talk resulted in a consensus on cooperation in expanding agricultural trade and pausing the rare-earths licensing regime for a year. Mid-November saw the conclusion of the record U.S. government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, and put an end to unpaid furlough and other government operations. Consequently, the October jobs report was cancelled due to insufficient data. The ambiguity around unemployment rates raised uncertainty about the state of the U.S. economy. Compounding concerns were exacerbated by growing anxieties about stretched valuations of an “AI bubble”, which led to a selloff towards the end of November.
2025 October Market Outlook: Between Tariffs and Growth — Searching for Stability
Towards the end of September, in an effort to protect American jobs, the Trump administration made surprised changes to immigration visa laws that target foreign talent, particularly those working in the U.S. technology sector. Amongst the heaviest users of this targeted immigration visa scheme include Amazon.com Services LLC, Meta Platforms Inc, Apple Inc and Google LLC. Later that month, the U.S. Immigration Service issued guidance that included exceptions, thus stabilising concerns. However, the labour market outlook remains uncertain with the shutdown of the U.S. government, which began on October 1st. Consequently, data reports such as the official U.S. monthly jobs report and the labour-intensive Consumer Price Index report would likely be delayed amidst the impending mass firing and unpaid furlough of certain segments of federal workers. In China, September data showed low domestic demand, a continued property downturn and the weakest economic growth in a year.
2025 September Market Outlook: Bullish Trends Meet a Cautious Reality
Economic data indicated a struggling Chinese economy with low factory output, weak retail sales, troubled property sector and high unemployment. This raises the likelihood of policy support in the fourth quarter; economists suggest monetary easing and fiscal expansion. Despite underwhelming economic data, the Chinese stock market stands at a stark contrast to the economy with the Shanghai Composite Index at a 10-year high. Additionally, the government announced their aim to triple chip output in 2026. The reluctance of household spending is evident in the size of savings worth more than 60% of the total value of the Chinese stock markets, leading analysts to believe that the rally is supported by long-term and institutional investors. Key drivers include the strategic deployment of state funds, inflows from global institutional investors—such as major U.S. financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, as well as large Singapore-based funds—and increased participation by domestic mutual funds and insurers.
2025 August Market Outlook: AI and Tech Earnings Fuel Optimism Despite Uncertainty
Despite continued geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties weighing on sentiment, resilient corporate earnings and tightening credit spreads would likely continue to support the global equity markets, notably in the AI and tech sectors. Meanwhile, we believe the Fed will remain cautious, closely watching sticky inflationary indicators; if inflation continues to ease, gradual rate cuts are likely. In spite of trade reroutes and structural market challenges leading to overcapacity, Asian equity markets performed better than expected, supported by a strengthened macro backdrop.
2025 July Market Outlook: Resilient Earnings and Renewed Trade Ties Keep Investor Confidence Intact
Since June, investor sentiment has gradually improved, supported by resilient corporate earnings, stronger-than-expected macroeconomic indicators, and measured progress in trade diplomacy. Despite lingering policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, market conditions have remained relatively calm, with volatility largely contained.