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市场展望2025年7月1日1 分钟阅读

2025年6月市场展望：风险环境中的韧性市场

2025年6月市场展望：风险环境中的韧性市场

自5月以来, 全球市场依然在政策不确定性和地缘政治风险上升的背景下运行. 特朗普 (The Trump)政府宣布的 “解放日关税” 90天暂停措施带来了一定的短期缓解, 但在更广泛的贸易谈判方面——尤其是与欧盟和日本的谈判——进展有限, 使投资者保持谨慎. 尽管与英国达成了一项有限协议, 但整体贸易格局仍未解决, 持续影响市场情绪并压制风险偏好.

2025年6月, 地缘政治紧张局势进一步升级, 尤其是以色列与伊朗的冲突. 伊朗威胁关闭霍尔木兹海峡——这一关键航道占全球石油供应的约20%——引发了油价的急剧上涨. 这一事态加剧了对供应中断、全球航运改道以及该地区更广泛不稳定性的担忧.

这一冲突的时机为通胀前景增添了复杂性. 包括美联储在内的各大央行原本正准备可能转向宽松. 然而, 油价的飙升带来了新的不确定性. 在6月的会议上, 美联储维持利率不变, 并仅暗示年内可能有一次降息, 理由是服务业通胀依然顽固以及地缘政治风险上升. 若冲突持续. 油价可能长期维持高位, 从而推迟或限制政策宽松. 与此同时, 美国因政治僵局和预算讨论未决引发的财政稳定担忧, 也进一步加剧了市场不确定性.

尽管面临这些挑战，我们仍保持谨慎乐观的展望. 通胀回落趋势正在显现, 市场波动性整体保持相对可控. 在关税紧张局势有望缓解、地缘政治摩擦预期下降, 以及中美两国实施支持性财政与亲商政策的背景下, 全球股市预计将延续复苏态势. 基于此, 我们在投资组合构建中继续坚持自下而上的基本面分析, 保持纪律性与均衡性.

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2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence
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2026 September Market Outlook: Navigating Market Divergence

The Fed maintained a restrictive, data-dependent stance through August and subsequently raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% citing persistent inflationary pressures. Updated projections point to the possibility of one further increase in 2026. Elevated long-dated US Treasury yields continue to present a valuation risk particularly for growth, technology and AI-related companies, whose expected cash flows lie further in the future. At the same time, continued corporate earnings delivery and investments in strategic technologies along the tech supply chain have so far helped the global economy absorb tighter financial conditions. Strong earnings guidance from major global technology companies supports the view that investment in data centres, advanced chips and supporting infrastructure remains resilient. Within Asia, performance has diverged meaningfully across countries. Singapore remains the region’s defensible market, with strong banking profitability and wealth management inflows attracting investor interest amid global uncertainty. Taiwan and South Korea’s technology sector continues to be major beneficiaries of surging AI-related demand. On the other hand, confidence towards China’s and Indonesia’s growth outlook remains fragile. China’s slow economic momentum is a result of a weak property market and slow domestic consumption, while Indonesia’s commodity price normalisation and concerns over capital outflows weigh on sentiment. Against this backdrop, maintaining well-diversified exposure across geographies and themes remains important. We continue to be highly selective in stock selection, adhering to a disciplined, bottom-up approach to portfolio construction that prioritises quality and resilience to macroeconomic uncertainty.

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Concerns around the durability of AI-related capital expenditure and intensifying competition triggered a sharp sector sell-off after a mid-July peak. Investor sentiment turned more discerning on the back of earnings season, and questions arose regarding how sustainable the AI investment pace is without eating into cash generation. Capital rotated out of semiconductors and into energy, financials and value stocks, shifting to markets and names seen as less exposed to a single-theme correction. Layered on top was renewed Middle East escalation and its effect on rates expectations. Brent crude spiked back above $100/barrel intermittently after the US reinstated a naval blockade on Iran and announced plans to impose a levy on cargo transiting Hormuz, although the levy was never implemented. This revived inflation concerns and caused markets to price a reduced likelihood of further Fed easing. Elevated US bond yields further weighed on stocks. Looking ahead, renewed conflict or another AI-related pullback could swiftly unwind recent sentiment gains and force a repricing of both rates and earnings expectations. Against this backdrop, we continue to favour a diversified, bottom-up approach that balances exposure to structural AI and technology themes with quality, less crowded names to weather through volatility.

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路演2026年8月6日

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Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., successfully organized a workshop on “Golden Investment Opportunities in Securities Sector” for the Management team and staff of Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., on 06 August 2026 at Forte Office, One Park Tower. The workshop provided participants with valuable insights into the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), including its key features, investment strategy, and the opportunities available through investing in a professionally managed fund licensed by the Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia (SERC). During the session, Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., delivered a presentation on “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”, sharing knowledge on investment opportunities and the benefits of BAEF as part of Cambodia’s growing securities sector. This workshop marks another important milestone under the Strategic Partnership between Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., ACLEDA Securities Plc., Forte General Insurance Plc., and Forte Life Assurance Plc., with the aim of enhancing investment awareness, strengthening collaboration, and creating opportunities for future business growth. #BanjaranAMC #BAEF #CIS #Investment #Strategic #Financial

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Banjaran AMC Participates in Trust Forum 2026
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Banjaran AMC Participates in Trust Forum 2026

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2026 July Market Outlook: Navigating Crosscurrents
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Golden Investment Workshop – ACLEDA Bank Tuol Kouk Branch
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Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., in collaboration with ACLEDA Securities Plc., successfully organized the Workshop on "Golden Investment Opportunities in Securities" as part of the 3rd Round Roadshow at ACLEDA Bank Plc., Local Branch (Khan Tuol Kouk, Sangkat Boeng Kak Ti Muoy), on the morning of 01 August 2026. The workshop aimed to enhance public understanding of capital market investments and the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF), a Collective Investment Scheme (CIS). We sincerely appreciate the support of our partners and the active participation of all attendees. Special thanks to Mr. Sok Chantola, Deputy Sales & Marketing Manager of Banjaran Asset Management (Cambodia) Plc., on the topic “Investment Value and Benefits of the BAMC Asia Equity Fund (BAEF)”. We look forward to welcoming you to our upcoming events.

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